The price of Bitcoin is nearing its bottom, according to VanEck CEO Jan van Eck, who pointed to the winding down of the four-year halving cycle.
In an interview with CNBC, van Eck said his firm expects Bitcoin (BTC) to gradually pick up this year, arguing that the halving cycle has been the primary price driver recently rather than changes in BTC’s fundamentals. He noted that Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million and that miners’ rewards are halved every four years.
“There’s been an investing cycle: Bitcoin goes up three years in a row, then falls sharply in the fourth year. 2026 is that fourth year. That’s why we’re in a Bitcoin bear market. I think we’re making a bottom,” he said.
The relevance of the four-year cycle has been debated, with some analysts saying greater institutional adoption, ETFs, a weaker U.S. dollar, and improved regulation have altered or weakened the pattern.
Van Eck’s remarks come as BTC is up about 2.6% over 24 hours, trading near $68,400, and up roughly 7.6% over seven days, according to CoinGecko.
The recent crypto rally has coincided with rising geopolitical tensions after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iran’s retaliatory actions. Van Eck suggested the conflict may have helped spark the recovery, as crypto payment rails can be used to move funds outside traditional banks during times of economic or political uncertainty.
“If one thinks forward to some sort of solution with Iran, how are you going to move money around? I do think it’s a very, very crypto-friendly region—UAE, Dubai, everything,” he said. “So it could be that if we wanted to move money to good actors, we would want to use crypto payment rails as opposed to going through decrepit Iranian banks that we don’t control.”
Related coverage has noted that downside momentum in Bitcoin is fading, though analysts say no confirmed trend reversal has yet appeared.
Magazine coverage has also explored market dynamics, including debates over the impact of major trading firms on Bitcoin’s price trajectory.
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