Bitcoin (BTC) sellers returned on Friday, dragging the price about 5.5% down from Wednesday’s $70,000 high to trade near $65,950 at the time of writing. Several analysts say BTC could fall much further and may not find a bottom until the last quarter of 2026.
Key takeaways:
– Analysts expect BTC to hit a cycle low in Q4 2026 based on technical and on‑chain indicators.
– Rising exchange reserves and “supply in profit” sinking to 2022 lows point to renewed downside pressure.
Analysts say Bitcoin price will bottom after June
Multiple analysts warn Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, potentially testing $30,000–$45,000 in the final quarter of 2026.
Trader Darky noted Bitcoin is about 140 days into the current bear market and posted: “We are going much lower, just a matter of time.”
On‑chain data provider CryptoQuant said bottoms take time and projected cycle lows could arrive between June and December, with a historical “sweet spot” clustering around September–November 2026.
Analyst Batman observed prior bear-cycle lows appeared 365 and 396 days after market tops. Bitcoin’s current all-time high of just over $126,000 was reached on Oct. 2, 2025; adding 365–396 days places a probable low window around October–November 2026. “So whatever price we get by then, I think it’s fair to say it will be a no-brainer buy,” he wrote.
CryptoQuant’s “supply in profit” metric has dropped to levels last seen in the 2022 bear market. Overlaying the 2022 downward price action onto the current cycle aligns with a -70% to -75% drawdown projection for the fifth cycle, implying a possible bottom between roughly $31,500 and $38,000 about six months out.
On‑Chain College shared a chart showing BTC has fallen below the Long‑Term Holder (LTH) True Cost Basis at $65,700 and needs to reclaim that band as support. Cost basis levels act as psychological pivots; trading below them raises unrealized losses and increases the risk of distribution. A sustained position beneath the band typically raises investor stress and encourages capitulation. “History would suggest that Bitcoin is due for a trip down to $42K or lower,” the commentary noted.
As previously reported, many analysts expect 2026 to behave like a bear market year, with various forecasts suggesting BTC could drop to around $40,000.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges keeps rising
CryptoQuant on‑chain data shows Bitcoin held on exchanges rose to about 2.752 million BTC from 2.723 million in mid‑January — an increase of roughly 28,489 BTC (+1.0%) over 45 days. Growing exchange balances are a classic bearish signal that can overwhelm demand.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. warned that “until the reserve turns lower and breaks back below 2.723M BTC, structural selling pressure remains intact,” adding that the key trigger for a regime change would be a sustained decline in reserves below the January lows.
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