Solana’s SOL is down 72% from its all-time high of $295 and below the $188 level seen at its spot ETF launch in October 2025. Since early December 2025, spot SOL ETF inflows have slowed while the price retraced sharply over four months.
At the same time, Solana’s on-chain volumes and revenue metrics rank high against competitors, raising questions about whether SOL’s longer-term price prospects favor a return toward its ATH.
SOL ETF resilience aligns with network use
Spot SOL ETFs launched in late October 2025, drawing over $100 million in average net inflows during their first five weeks. Since December 2025, weekly inflows have decreased, averaging $20–$25 million as SOL slid to $86 in February 2026. Across the four-month drawdown, cumulative outflows totaled just $11.3 million over two weeks. By comparison, BTC and ETH spot ETFs logged four consecutive months of negative flows in the same period.
Solana’s network activity tells a different story than its price. Over the past 30 days, Solana processed $108 billion in DEX volume, ahead of Ethereum’s $63.7 billion and Base’s $31.48 billion. Volumes in January reached $117 billion, exceeding December and November. Weekly averages since January 2025 have hovered near $20–$25 billion.
In the last 24 hours, Solana generated $3.1 million in app revenue versus Ethereum’s $2.95 million. Active addresses stood at 2.17 million versus 682,236 for Ethereum, while chain fees reached $722,706 compared to Ethereum’s $356,438.
Solana’s RWA sector climbed to an all-time high of $1.71 billion, up 45% in 30 days, though Ethereum still holds $15 billion of the $25.37 billion distributed asset value in that industry.
SOL support cluster and valuation gap
Trader Scient highlighted two macro areas that may shape a potential bottom: the 0.75 Fibonacci retracement zone at $60–$70, associated with deeper pullbacks within larger uptrends, and a weekly demand fair value gap (FVG) between $22 and $29, an area of prior liquidity imbalance that preceded the rally from $25 to $200.
For now, structure remains capped as price holds below weekly resistance at $120. On the weekly chart, SOL has tested the demand zone of $51–$80, aligning with the retracement pocket and potentially forming a base for recovery.
UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data shows over 6% of supply last moved within the current price cluster, creating a dense cost-basis zone. The next significant concentration above 3% of supply sits between $20 and $30.
From a valuation standpoint, SOL sits near a realized supply cluster while ETF positioning has not unwound and DEX turnover leads other chains despite lower TVL. The price compression alongside steady ETF inflows and rising network use reveals a measurable gap between activity and valuation.
Whether that gap resolves through SOL price action depends on how the $51–$80 demand zone and the $120 resistance interact with inflows and network metrics over coming months.
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