Cryptocurrency investors have accused quantitative trading firm Jane Street of repeatedly pressuring Bitcoin’s price with programmatic sell-offs around the U.S. market open, but market analysts and on-chain data suggest the alleged pattern is inconsistent and that no single firm can force a sustained Bitcoin bear market.
The accusations intensified after Terraform Labs’ court-appointed administrator filed suit against Jane Street, alleging insider trading linked to transactions that worsened Terra’s algorithmic stablecoin collapse in May 2022. Critics, including crypto influencer Justin Bechler, argue Jane Street’s large reported holding of BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT) could conceal a net short in Bitcoin through hedges that do not appear in public filings. Bechler contends these hidden hedges would let the firm sell spot Bitcoin programmatically at about 10 a.m. Eastern to drive the price down and buy IBIT at a discount.
Bechler wrote that a 13F filing showing Jane Street holding hundreds of millions in IBIT reveals nothing about offsetting positions — such as puts, short futures, or collars — which could make a reported long position effectively neutral or net short under current disclosure rules.
Others caution this setup is common. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno said buying spot and selling futures is a typical delta-neutral strategy used by funds to capture spreads rather than make directional bets. Jane Street’s latest 13-F also disclosed holdings in IBIT as well as sizeable stakes in Bitcoin miners Bitfarms, Cipher Mining and Hut 8.
The online narrative centers on claims Bitcoin regularly drops shortly after 10 a.m. ET, coinciding with the start of U.S. trading. On-chain analyst Nonzee posted an hourly Bitcoin chart alleging months of manipulation at that time, while market watcher Whale Factor claimed a recurring 2%–3% daily drop minutes after the U.S. open, arguing it’s a programmatic sweep to accumulate ETFs at a discount. Whale Factor also flagged Jane Street’s multi-billion-dollar IBIT position as a likely driver.
Other analysts reject the idea of a systematic daily dump. Macro commentator Alex Krüger shared blockchain data showing cumulative returns of about 0.9% in the 10:00–10:30 a.m. window since Jan. 1, arguing the “10 a.m. dump” narrative doesn’t hold and that observed moves reflect a broader risk-asset repricing that tracks Nasdaq performance.
Market participants also note the global Bitcoin market is deep and fragmented, making it unlikely that a single firm could dictate a prolonged decline. Nick Puckrin, co-founder and lead market analyst at Coin Bureau, said investors seeking a villain during downturns overlook more nuanced market dynamics. He added that Bitcoin’s recent weakness is better explained by geopolitical uncertainty, global liquidity conditions and competition from sectors like artificial intelligence for investor capital.
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent reporting. This article follows its Editorial Policy and aims to provide accurate, timely information; readers are encouraged to verify details independently.
