Ether (ETH) has risen about 18% since dipping below $1,800 on Feb. 6 and has reclaimed the $2,000 support level. A sharp rise in realized volatility and a low MVRV Z-Score are signaling a possible local bottom.
Key takeaways:
– Ether realized volatility on Binance has climbed to its highest level since March 2025, hinting at a potential recovery.
– Ether’s MVRV Z-Score has fallen into the accumulation zone, suggesting ETH may have bottomed.
– Ether’s multiyear trend line around $1,800–$1,900 continues to act as support.
Ether’s volatility hits 12-month highs
Realized volatility for Ether has spiked, indicating the market has entered a period of heightened activity and rapid repricing, per CryptoQuant. Volatility measures how much and how quickly price moves over a set period.
The 30-day realized volatility on Binance rose sharply to about 0.97 on Thursday from 0.37 in mid-January. CryptoQuant analyst Arab Chain noted that similar readings in the past have often preceded significant upward moves in Ethereum’s price.
The last time volatility was this high was late March–early April 2025, when ETH formed a bottom between roughly $1,500 and $1,700. After that, ETH rallied about 77% to $2,700 in under 30 days. A similar spike in Q4 2024 preceded a roughly 74% price gain. If history repeats, the current volatility surge could mark the end of the downtrend and set up a multimonth rally once volatility normalizes and conviction returns.
MVRV Z-Score suggests Ether bottomed below $1,800
Ether’s MVRV Z-Score, a widely used on-chain metric for spotting tops and bottoms, has dropped into the historical accumulation zone. The current Z-Score sits around −0.31, a level last seen in April 2025 following a 66% drawdown that coincided with a bottom near $1,400 and preceded a multi-month rally.
From an on-chain perspective, this suggests ETH is oversold and may continue recovering. Short-term upside targets include liquidity clusters roughly between $2,200 and $2,500.
Ether’s 2020 fractal projects an “explosive climb” for ETH price
Technically, Ether’s structure is mirroring the setup that launched the 2020–2021 rally. The monthly chart shows price holding a multi-year ascending trend line—similar to the support that underpinned the 2018–2020 build-up. Analyst Trader Tardigrade noted that each time price has held above this trend line, it has launched into a parabolic rally; ETH is testing it again now.
That trend line sits within the $1,800–$1,900 support zone, where investors recently accumulated about 2.9 million ETH, according to Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap. If bulls can push ETH above $2,100, the next technical target to watch is the 50-day simple moving average near $2,540.
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