Since falling about 35% from Jan. 14 to Feb. 5, Bitcoin (BTC) has traded sideways between $60,000 and $70,000 for the past 22 days. Several adoption-linked metrics—spot ETF flows, whale holdings, miner hash rate and corporate treasuries—are diverging, showing steady capital commitment beneath muted price action.
Bitcoin ETF flows remain negative
The 90-day rolling average of US spot Bitcoin ETF net flows sits near -$2.18 billion. Over the past two years this metric has gone negative only twice: March–May 2025 and again since Dec. 11, 2025. A sustained negative reading indicates more money leaving ETFs than entering, reducing buying pressure and making upward price moves harder. A return above zero with steady inflows would likely signal renewed institutional participation and improved liquidity, which historically aligns with stronger BTC price action.
BTC whale accumulation versus trend
CryptoQuant tracks the one-year change in holdings by large addresses (1,000–10,000 BTC) and its 365-day moving average. Those addresses added more than 200,000 BTC from June to November 2023 while price traded $25,000–$30,000. When the raw one-year change crosses above its 365-day average, whales are absorbing supply faster than their longer-term trend—an accumulation pattern that preceded the 2023–24 bullish rally. If the one-year change again moves sustainably above its 365-SMA, it would signal renewed large-scale absorption and a potentially bullish backdrop.
Hash rate and infrastructure signal
Bitcoin’s 30-day mean hash rate is near 0.99 ZH/s after peaking at roughly 1.10 ZH/s in November 2025. Both hash rate and price have eased in recent weeks. Rising hash rate during price consolidation reflects miners expanding hardware and energy capacity independent of short-term gains. A sustained rise in hash rate while price remains flat can indicate growing confidence and long-term commitment from miners. For that to translate into a healthier market, miner economics must improve—stabilizing hash price and reducing miner sell pressure would confirm that rising computational power is supported by better revenue conditions rather than narrowing margins.
Corporate BTC treasury concentration cools
Data from bitcointreasuries.net shows public-company treasuries added about 43,200 BTC in January, with Strategy (MicroStrategy) accounting for roughly 40,150 BTC. However, corporate accumulation by Strategy has slowed since late 2024; monthly additions peaked near 148,000 BTC in November 2024 and 87,000 BTC in July 2025. Recent monthly figures are materially lower—the last 30-day increase represents only about 0.1% growth relative to the roughly 1.13 million BTC held by public companies. That pace signals stability and position maintenance rather than accelerating demand. Broader and accelerating treasury inflows would help absorb supply more effectively; slower corporate additions imply companies are largely holding rather than driving fresh demand.
Taken together, these signals show differing layers of commitment: negative ETF flows and slower corporate additions weigh on immediate demand, while whale accumulation crossovers and miner infrastructure trends could presage longer-term strength if sustained. Monitoring flows, large-holder trends, hash rate trajectory and miner economics will help clarify whether the current consolidation precedes renewed accumulation or a deeper corrective phase.
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