Bitcoin (BTC) failed to hold $69,000 as the weekend began, with commentators warning of potential fresh macro lows ahead.
Key points:
– Bitcoin lacks acceptance above $69,000, and some traders expect new lows.
– The weekend rebound is characterized as a “relief rally,” not a confirmed bottom.
– Two CME futures gaps offer potential upside targets if a relief move continues.
BTC price bottom “not in,” analysis warns
TradingView data showed BTC sliding more than $4,000 versus the daily open. With the old 2021 all-time high turning into resistance, cautious traders were unmoved by the short-term bounce.
Keith Alan, cofounder of Material Indicators, warned on X that the BTC bottom is “not in,” prioritizing capital preservation. “If you’re thinking, ‘We’re so back,’ we’re not. There is literally no evidence of that yet,” he wrote, calling the 2021 $69,000 highs important and labeling the recent rise a “relief rally.” Alan added that $60k was “a gift” but that lower levels are likely before a true bull market return.
Trader and analyst Rekt Capital also suggested the bearish phase may continue. He noted that when Bitcoin peaks in the post-halving bull market Q4, it often produces a multi-month relief rally from a macro triangle base before breaking down into bearish acceleration—an outcome observed in prior cycles. “This is the 4th consecutive cycle that this historical tendency has continued. And history suggests there’s more downside to come,” he wrote.
Bitcoin bulls bet on CME gap fills
Saturday’s retracement created a new potential gap in CME Group’s Bitcoin futures market. That gap, alongside another left at roughly $84,000, is being watched as a classic short-term price magnet for traders looking for a broader relief move.
Crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe forecast a short correction followed by a move back toward the CME gap and a continuation to $75k+. Samson Mow, CEO of JAN3, cited the higher CME gap as one of two key questions all financial analysts should ask: whether the gap will be filled and whether large corporate buyers will add BTC to treasuries at current lows. He suggested the answers may arrive “very soon.”
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