Bitcoin (BTC) fell more than 22.5% over the past week to about $69,000 on Thursday, erasing roughly 15 months of gains. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns the downtrend may continue.
Key takeaways:
– Brandt says “campaign selling” is pressuring BTC, with miners and ETFs cutting exposure.
– A potential bottom zone is near $54,600–$55,000.
BTC’s price action shows a sequence of daily lower highs and lower lows, signaling weak dip-buying interest. Brandt said the pattern bears the “fingerprints of campaign selling,” implying sustained, deliberate distribution by large players rather than simple retail liquidation.
Onchain metrics back that view. The miner net position change moved to clear net distribution throughout January as miners consistently sent more BTC to market. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs also trimmed holdings, with total net balances down to about 1.27 million BTC as of Wednesday from roughly 1.29 million at the start of the year. The Coinbase premium, a gauge tied to institutional demand, also fell to yearly lows.
Brandt’s technical setup points to a bear-flag target near $63,800 — roughly 10% below then-current levels — that the market could reach if selling persists.
Onchain analyst GugaOnChain similarly flagged downside risk toward $54,600. That level aligns with the lower band of the BTC DCA Signal Cycle metric, which reflects Bitcoin’s one-week to one-month realized price and highlights when BTC is structurally undervalued. In 2022 the same band marked a bullish turning point when BTC fell below ~$20,000 and later rallied.
GugaOnChain summarized the situation as a convergence toward the band “signaling the start of the accumulation phase, situated around $54.6K,” indicating a transition between capitulation and accumulation.
Another analysis suggests a possible accumulation window after July 2026, based on historical lags between widening credit spreads and Bitcoin market bottoms, implying macro credit stress timing could influence the next pronounced accumulation phase.
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