Bitcoin sellers resumed activity Thursday as BTC slipped below $69,000, the lowest level since Nov. 6, 2024. Analysts say the market is showing signs of “full capitulation” and a possible bottom, citing extreme fear, panic selling by short-term holders and deeply oversold RSI readings.
Key takeaways:
– Short-term holders moved nearly 60,000 BTC to exchanges in 24 hours.
– The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered “extreme fear,” signaling a potential bottom.
– Bitcoin’s RSI readings point to significant seller exhaustion.
Short-term holder capitulation deepens
Nearly 60,000 BTC — about $4.2 billion at current prices — held by short-term holders (STHs, under 155 days) were moved to exchanges at a loss over 24 hours, CryptoQuant data shows. This was the largest exchange inflow year-to-date and has added material selling pressure.
“The correction is so severe that no BTC in profit is being moved by LTHs,” CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said, adding: “This is a full capitulation.”
Glassnode’s analysis shows the 7-day SMA of realized losses has climbed above $1.26 billion per day, a marked increase in fear. Historically, such spikes in realized losses often coincide with acute seller exhaustion, when marginal sell pressure begins to fade. Glassnode also noted that Bitcoin’s capitulation metric printed its second-largest spike in two years, a pattern that has previously accompanied accelerated de-risking and elevated volatility as participants reset positions.
“Extreme fear” could signal market bottom
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index posted an “extreme fear” score of 12 on Thursday. Levels like this were last seen on July 22, before Bitcoin bottomed near $15,500 and later entered a strong bull run. Data show that capitulation events at these extreme readings typically include short-term weakness but often precede rebounds.
“We are at an ‘extreme fear’ level,” analyst Davie Satoshi said, adding: “History has shown this is the time to buy and accumulate more!” Crypto sentiment platform Santiment noted investor sentiment has “turned extremely bearish toward Bitcoin,” and suggested this dynamic supports the case for a short-term relief rally if the small-trader crowd remains skeptical about crypto.
RSI indicates seller exhaustion
CoinGlass’ heatmap shows BTC’s RSI is oversold on five of six time frames. Specific levels include 18 on the 12-hour chart, 20 on the daily, and 23 on the four-hour. TradingView data put the weekly RSI at 29 — the most oversold weekly reading since the 2022 bear market.
“Bitcoin is now the MOST oversold since the FTX crash,” CryptoXLARGE observed, attributing the readings to panic selling. Analyst HodlFM noted these RSI levels match those seen around the $16K low in 2022, calling it “not a timing signal by itself, but historically, this is where risk/reward favors the buyers.”
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