Bitcoin (BTC) may get a lift from fresh macro tailwinds as US economic data sets up a potential “reflation” trade.
Key points:
– US ISM Manufacturing PMI for January breaks nearly three years of contraction.
– Analysts disagree on the impact for BTC price despite prior PMI correlation.
– A hidden bearish divergence between PMI and BTC/USD is now highlighted.
PMI fuels case for BTC “final bull”
New analysis, including commentary from Andre Dragosch, European head of research at Bitwise, argues US financial policy could help trigger a BTC rebound after the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside.
The ISM PMI, a composite gauge of US manufacturing activity, had been in contraction through 2025 but recently pushed back above the key 50 threshold for the first time since mid‑2022. For Dragosch, coupled with strong moves in gold and silver, the data signals “reflation.”
“You’re naive if you believe that there is no valuable information for bitcoin in the latest (precious-)metals rally,” he said, calling the ISM spike “no surprise” and noting that similar macro environments have historically coincided with bitcoin bull runs.
Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe stressed the historical correlation between PMI and Bitcoin as part of broader risk‑on cycles. He noted the ISM Manufacturing PMI is now in the first 50+ read in more than three years and argued that recent BTC gains were initially driven by ETF launches and liquidity, but that the macro picture is now shifting. Van de Poppe forecast a strong, final multi‑year bull market for Bitcoin and crypto.
Bitcoin vs. PMI: “Probably different outcome”
Reflation refers to policies that tolerate or encourage rising inflation to lift growth after disinflation or recession. The US remains in a fragile spot on inflation, with mixed data leaving the trajectory uncertain.
Not everyone is convinced PMI alone predicts relief for Bitcoin. Trader Titan of Crypto warned against “proxy abuse” — treating a single macro indicator as the whole cycle. Comparing past episodes, he noted that in 2013, 2016 and 2020, PMI moving above 50 coincided with a hidden bullish divergence versus BTC and was followed by bull runs. This time, although PMI has crossed 50 again, the structure shows a regular bearish divergence versus BTC, suggesting a different outcome.
“Same indicator, different structure, probably different outcome,” he concluded, highlighting the risk that historical PMI‑BTC correlations may not repeat.
This debate frames a split among analysts: some view the PMI overshoot and metals strength as the start of a reflationary macro backdrop that favors Bitcoin’s next major bull phase, while others caution that the current technical relationship between PMI and BTC points toward a less bullish path.
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