Bitcoin (BTC) struggled to avoid another drop at Monday’s Wall Street open as growing numbers of traders cast doubt on the return of a sustained bull market.
Key points:
– Many commentators now question whether the bull market will resume.
– BTC has recorded four consecutive red monthly candles for only the third time in its history.
– Some analysts say a gold correction could still steer flows back into crypto.
BTC/USD bounced roughly 2% from the daily open, according to TradingView, after touching fresh 16-month lows of $74,532 on Bitstamp. That level coincides with an uptick in bearish forecasts, with $74,000 and below becoming a frequently cited downside target.
QCP Capital warned in its Asia Color market update that the sessions ahead will be critical. “A sustained close below the 74k support level would increase the risk of a deeper drawdown, potentially drawing the broader crypto complex back toward its 2024 trading range,” it wrote.
Market participants displayed little confidence in a quick turnaround. Trader Jelle noted a “weekly lower low on closing basis. Uptrend confirmed over,” adding that it will likely take time before a reversal occurs. Rekt Capital likewise suggested Bitcoin is unlikely to retest the $126,200 all-time highs from October 2025, commenting, “Looks like that was the top.”
Monitoring service CoinGlass recorded BTC/USD’s fourth straight month of negative returns at the January close, a sequence previously seen only during the 2014 and 2018 bear markets.
After months of diverging moves, Bitcoin and gold showed some short-term similarity on the day. XAU/USD, having broken down sharply from recent highs, tried to stabilize near $4,700 per ounce. QCP linked the reversal in gold and silver to the announcement of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve, saying that news weighed on demand for non-yielding precious metals. Higher margin requirements imposed by futures exchanges also accelerated the unwinding of leveraged precious-metals positions.
That environment left a narrow opening for bullish scenarios. Trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to historical patterns in which gold peaks have been followed by delayed Bitcoin highs, then Ether climbs once Bitcoin regains strength. “I don’t think we’ll see new ATHs for Gold and Silver soon. In some years, yes, but not during 2026. That opens the floodgates towards Crypto,” he wrote, suggesting a gold correction could eventually redirect capital into digital assets.
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