Bitcoin (BTC) slid to a year-to-date low of $74,555 on Monday, about a 40% decline from its all-time high. The drop coincided with heavy capital exits from Bitcoin exchange-traded products (ETPs), with roughly $1.3–1.35 billion in weekly net outflows from Bitcoin products and $1.73 billion from global crypto ETPs overall, according to Bitwise.
Key takeaways:
– Bitcoin’s two-year rolling MVRV z-score fell to its lowest recorded level, signaling extreme undervaluation.
– Global Bitcoin ETPs saw roughly $1.35 billion in weekly net outflows, driven largely by U.S. spot BTC ETFs; Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and iShares Bitcoin Trust posted about $119 million and $947 million in outflows, respectively.
– Bitcoin’s daily RSI dropped into the 20–25 range, a band that has preceded ~10% rebounds in every instance since August 2023 (with June 2024 as a delayed exception).
Fire‑sale valuations and sentiment
Bitwise’s Weekly Crypto Market Compass reports the two-year rolling Market‑Value‑to‑Realized‑Value (MVRV) z-score has plunged to record lows, a metric that measures how far market value departs from investors’ aggregate cost basis (adjusted for historical volatility). Bitwise characterizes the current readings as “fire‑sale valuations” for Bitcoin.
Its Cryptoasset Sentiment Index fell to levels last seen during the October 2023 liquidation crash; only 2 of 15 tracked indicators remain above their short-term trend.
Flows reinforced the bearish tone. Global crypto ETPs recorded large outflows for a second consecutive week (about $1.73 billion last week following $1.81 billion the week prior). Bitcoin products accounted for the bulk of those withdrawals, with U.S. spot ETFs leading the exits.
Technical and on‑chain signals for a rebound
Despite the selloff, several technical and on‑chain indicators point to a possible short-term relief move after the local low near $74,500.
– Daily RSI: The reading falling into the 20–25 range has historically preceded roughly 10% price rebounds in every instance since August 2023 (except one delayed case).
– Spot CVD: Cumulative volume delta (CVD) on Binance and Coinbase turned positive as BTC recovered toward ~$79,300, indicating net aggressive spot buying.
– Open interest and funding: Open interest remained flat and aggregated funding rates were negative, suggesting the recent move is driven by spot demand rather than leveraged longs, which reduces immediate liquidation risk.
– Liquidations and risk bands: Over $1.8 billion in long liquidations occurred last week, and more than $3 billion in cumulative short positions sit near the $85,000 area, at risk of liquidation if price rallies.
Crypto trader commentary
Crypto trader “exitpump” highlighted a bullish spot CVD divergence across major exchanges, echoing the idea that spot buying, not leveraged long squeezes, is underpinning the recent uptick.
Sources cited in the analysis include Bitwise (Crypto Market Compass), TradingView, Velo.data, and CoinGlass.
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