Bitcoin (BTC) closed its weekly candle at $76,931, slipping below its 100-week simple moving average (SMA) for the first time since October 2023. Market observers are weighing whether this signals the start of a bear phase and how long a recovery could take.
Key takeaways:
– BTC closed a weekly candle below the 100-week SMA, a trend historically associated with multi-month drawdowns.
– Previous breaks below this weekly trend lasted 182–532 days.
– Heavy spot volume between $85,000 and $95,000 may turn that zone into significant resistance.
Bitcoin slips below a long-term weekly trend
The 100-week SMA sits near $87,500. Bitcoin’s weekly close beneath that level marks the loss of a key macro trend. Crypto commentator Brett noted that, aside from the 2020 COVID flash crash, BTC has endured extended periods below the 100-week SMA: 357 days in 2014–2015 (prices ranged $200–$600), 182 days in 2018–2019 (bear-market bottom near $3,000–$6,000), and 532 days in 2022 following the FTX collapse (consolidation $16,000–$25,000). Each episode preceded extended accumulation rather than immediate rebounds, implying time may again be required before a sustained bullish phase.
USDT dominance and $85,000 resistance raise bear-market risk
Analyst Sherlock pointed out a weekly close above 7.2% on the USDT dominance chart. In past cycles, a weekly close above ~6.7% aligned with bearish conditions; the recent breakout is the first in over two and a half years. Sherlock also flagged $85,000 as a key resistance zone: more than $120 billion in spot volume traded between $85,000 and $95,000 in Q4 2025, placing many holders underwater. With BTC near $78,000, rallies toward $85,000 could meet selling pressure as traders seek breakeven exits; the realized price for one-to-three-month holder cohorts is around $91,500.
BTC fractal structure mirrors 2022
Weekly price structure shows similarities to the 2022 dip: lower highs, loss of the 100-week SMA, and failed attempts to sustain recoveries before deeper corrections. If the current fractal continues, Bitcoin could revisit the established demand zone around $40,000–$45,000. Fractals aren’t predictive, but the setup indicates elevated downside risk unless BTC decisively reclaims the 100-week SMA.
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