Since its debut, Bitcoin has followed a predictable four-year pattern: a halving event cuts supply by 50%, spurring scarcity-driven rallies and later pullbacks. That cycle has shaped investor expectations throughout Bitcoin’s history.
Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood says Bitcoin may be moving beyond that traditional model. Speaking with Fox Business, she argued recent price action is increasingly influenced by institutional adoption rather than the retail-driven responses seen after past halvings. Where earlier cycles produced 75–90% drawdowns and high volatility, Wood notes volatility is declining as ETFs, corporate balance sheets, and institutional flows play a larger role.
“We think that the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline,” she said, suggesting the market may have already seen a low a few weeks earlier. In prior cycles, reduced supply mainly pulled in retail buyers; today capital flows are dominated by institutional vehicles.
Wood also says Bitcoin’s market behavior now resembles a risk-on asset that moves with equities, rather than a consistent safe haven. She acknowledged that Bitcoin has acted as risk-off at times—during events like the European sovereign debt crisis and the 2023 U.S. regional banking turmoil—but believes it has shifted back to risk-on. “Now, gold is more of a risk-off asset,” she added, calling this evidence investors are “climbing a wall of worry” and using gold to hedge geopolitical risk.
Wood previously forecast a $1.5 million peak for Bitcoin by 2030 but trimmed that bull-case by $300,000 in November, warning that stablecoins are eroding Bitcoin’s store-of-value role in some emerging markets.
