During a year many expected to bring a major Bitcoin (BTC) bull run, market analyst Axel Adler says Bitcoin is at the midpoint of a bear-cycle correction. Year-to-date BTC is down a modest 4% and has been consolidating in a roughly $89,000–$94,000 range, with $94,000 acting as near-term resistance.
Adler measures the current correction at about -32% from the all-time high, which he calls mild relative to past bear cycles. He highlights that roughly 88% of Bitcoin holdings remain in unrealized profit and only about 12% of supply is at a loss—far below the typical capitulation levels seen in previous major drawdowns. Historically, bear markets in 2011, 2016, 2019 and 2023 saw the share of coins at a loss climb toward ~60%, which tended to mark capitulation points.
That contrast raises the central question for the remainder of the year: will the correction stabilize in a shallower -35% to -40% range—signaling a more “flattened” cycle—or will market behavior revert to historical patterns that drive deeper declines of -60% to -70%? Adler notes that during recent local peaks only about 17% of coins were in the red, a figure still multiple times lower than classic capitulation thresholds. This unusual structure suggests the move could reflect a correction inside a longer-term bullish “supercycle” rather than the onset of a full bear market.
If Bitcoin can hold maximum drawdown above roughly -35% while unrealized losses remain moderate, that would support the case for flatter corrections driven by ongoing institutional demand and a structural supply deficit. Conversely, a slide past -40% would materially increase the probability of a classic bear market, with deeper losses and potential capitulation across unrealized-loss metrics, possibly approaching the -60% to -70% ranges seen historically.
At the time of Adler’s remarks BTC was trading near $93,000, showing about 5% gains over 24 hours and nearly 9% over 14 days. The coming weeks will be watched closely for whether the market holds its current shallow drawdown or resumes a deeper retracement toward traditional bear-market territory.
Featured image credit: DALL·E. Charts: TradingView and Axel Adler.
