A technical metric known as liveliness has climbed to new highs, signaling robust on-chain activity and suggesting the current Bitcoin bull market could persist despite lower spot prices.
Analyst “TXMC” said liveliness “continues to march higher this cycle despite lower prices, indicating a floor of demand for spot Bitcoin that is not reflected in price action.” He described the metric as an “elegant” long-term moving average of on-chain activity: a running sum of lifetime spending versus holding activity that rises when coins are net transacting and falls when they’re held, scaled by coin age. “Liveliness usually rises in bull runs as supply changes hands at higher prices, indicating a flow of newly invested capital,” he added.
James Check noted liveliness had been range-bound since the 2017 peak until recently. Current peaks, he said, show an extreme return of previously dormant coins with a much larger magnitude of value than in 2017. Whereas transactions in 2017 were often in the hundreds to thousands of dollars, this cycle’s movements are occurring in the several to tens of billions. Check called the surge in coin-days destroyed “one of the greatest capital rotations and changing of the guard in Bitcoin history.”
On price action, Bitcoin has been relatively stable over the past 24 hours, briefly dipping below $89,000 before recovering toward $89,500. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe described the $86,000–$92,000 band as noise and said a break above $92,000 could lead to further upside; if that level fails, he warned of a possible test in the low $80,000s and a potential double-bottom. He added that he doesn’t believe the market is far from bottoming, which could set up a strong rally into the end of the year and Q1.
Overall, rising liveliness suggests renewed spending and turnover of long-held coins, pointing to substantive demand beneath the surface of price action and supporting the view that the bull cycle may not yet be over.
