The share of Ether (ETH) held on centralized exchanges has fallen to record lows and analysts warn this could create a supply squeeze. Exchange balances dipped to 8.7% last Thursday—the lowest level since Ethereum launched in 2015—and remained around 8.8% on Sunday, according to Glassnode data.
Exchange-held ETH has dropped about 43% since early July, roughly when corporate and digital asset treasuries began accelerating purchases. Macro research feed Milk Road said ETH is “quietly entering its tightest supply environment ever,” noting the level is unprecedented.
By comparison, Bitcoin balances on exchanges sit higher at about 14.7% (Glassnode). Milk Road highlighted that ETH is increasingly being locked away in places that aren’t likely to sell, including staking and restaking, Layer-2 activity, digital asset treasuries, collateral loops, and long-term custody. That shrinking available supply could feed price momentum once market conditions shift.
“Sentiment feels heavy right now, but sentiment doesn’t dictate supply. ETH supply is tightening in the background while the market decides its next move. When that gap closes, price follows,” the commentary added.
Volume momentum indicator signals buying strength
Analyst Sykodelic pointed to an On-Balance Volume (OBV) breakout above resistance, a volume-based momentum signal. Although price was rejected after the breakout—a divergence—this pattern can indicate hidden buying strength that often precedes upside moves.
“This is a sign of buying strength, and typically, the price will follow. Nothing is guaranteed with indicators, but I have found that OBV tends to be one of the most reliable leading indicators,” the analyst said, adding that the price action looks bullish and could reach new highs before any significant pullback.
ETH holds on to $3,000
Ether has largely stayed above $3,000 over the past five days but has struggled to clear resistance near $3,200. Over the last 24 hours the price has consolidated around roughly $3,050. The ETH/BTC pair also attracted attention after breaking above a downtrend line, signaling relative strength versus Bitcoin.
