Bitcoin (BTC) traded about 4.5% below the $74,000 high reached Thursday, leaving traders split on whether that level marked a local peak or the start of further gains.
Key takeaways:
– Some charts echo the 2022 bear cycle, implying another leg down below $60,000 is possible.
– Others argue the bottom is in and expect a breakout rally toward $75,000–$80,000.
Is the 2022 BTC price cycle repeating?
BTC’s technical structure after the recovery from $60,000 shows similarities with the midpoints of past bear cycles. Bitcoin’s rise to $74,000 occurred roughly 149 days after its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Analyst Bitcoin Hyper noted BTC made a local high around 140–150 days after prior all-time highs before pushing lower.
Pseudonymous trader Bitcoin Isaiah called the $74,000 move a “perfect local top indicator,” warning bulls’ premature celebrations could presage more selling. He referenced the 2022 cycle, when euphoria preceded a 68% crash from $48,200 to $15,500, suggesting history could repeat with a revisit to sub-$60,000 levels.
Master of Crypto labeled the brief pump above $70,000 a liquidity trap that wiped out both shorts and longs, and said price could target lower zones between $62,000–$65,000 where larger ask orders sit: “The price usually goes where the bigger money sits.” Cointelegraph also flagged signs of a pullback after the $74,000 rally, noting a classic bearish chart pattern and significant overhead resistance.
Is Bitcoin’s relief rally over?
Bulls counter that $60,000 likely marked the market bottom and that the cycle is different this time. Analyst Bitcoin Munger argued the 2022 bear fractal isn’t a reason to be bearish, pointing out that while the 2022 drawdown cut through the 200-week exponential moving average (EMA), the current cycle only retested and bounced from that trend line.
Analyst Mister Crypto said BTC/USD appears to be breaking out of an ascending triangle and expects a “strong move to the upside” if the $70,000 area holds as support. Other bullish differences from 2022 include strong institutional spot ETF inflows and tightening supply, factors that could help Bitcoin avoid another crash and set the stage for a push toward $75,000–$80,000.
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