Bitcoin’s struggle to remain above $70,000 continued Wednesday, raising concern that the next major support could be in the $60,000 range. The recent sell-off has coincided with heavy futures market liquidations, a roughly $55 billion decline in BTC open interest (OI) over the past 30 days, and rising Bitcoin inflows to exchanges.
About 744,000 BTC of open interest exited major derivatives venues in the past month, signaling broad deleveraging rather than merely new short positions. CryptoQuant’s 30-day open interest change shows a sharp contraction across exchanges: Binance’s net open interest fell by 276,869 BTC, Bybit saw the largest decline at 330,828 BTC, and OKX recorded a reduction of 136,732 BTC. In aggregate, these closed positions equal more than $55 billion at current prices and coincided with Bitcoin breaking below $75,000, pointing to deleveraging as a primary driver behind the move.
Onchain analyst Boris highlighted cumulative volume delta (CVD) data showing sell orders dominating trading flow, particularly on Binance where derivatives CVD sits near -$38 billion over the past six months. Exchange-specific dynamics vary: Bybit’s CVD flattened around $100 million following a sharp December liquidation wave, while HTX’s CVD stabilized near -$200 million as price consolidated near $74,000.
Exchange flows have also added pressure. Bitcoin inflows to exchanges surged in January to about 756,000 BTC, led by Binance and Coinbase, and since early February inflows have exceeded 137,000 BTC. That movement reflects repositioning by traders and increases near-term supply available on exchanges.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that exchange reserves have risen from 2.718 million BTC on Jan. 19 to 2.752 million BTC, an increase of roughly 34,000 BTC. Adler warned that continued growth above 2.76 million BTC could amplify selling pressure and suggested that a full capitulation may not yet have occurred and could happen at lower price levels.
Market analyst Scient said durable market bottoms are unlikely to form in a single day or week, and instead may develop over two to three months of consolidation near major support zones and higher-timeframe confirmations. Whether that consolidation forms in the high $60,000s or down near the low $50,000s remains uncertain; analysts frame these scenarios as conditional, not predictive.
Trader Mark Cullen sees potential downside toward $50,000 in a broader macro scenario, while also expecting a short-term reversion to the local point of control in the $86,000–$89,000 range after BTC swept weekly lows below $74,000.
Key takeaways:
– Roughly 744,000 BTC in open interest was closed across major exchanges in the past 30 days, equal to about $55 billion at current prices.
– BTC futures cumulative volume delta fell by roughly $40 billion over six months, with Binance CVD near -$38 billion.
– Exchange reserves rose by around 34,000 BTC since mid-January, increasing near-term supply risk.
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