The share of traders expecting an interest rate cut at the March Federal Open Market Committee meeting rose to 23% after investor concerns about the potential hawkishness of Kevin Warsh, President Donald Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve chair.
CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed the reading climbed from 18.4% on Friday. Those betting on a March cut are pricing a 25 basis point move; no traders were assigning probability to a 50 basis point or larger cut.
President Trump nominated Warsh in January to replace Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May. Warsh is viewed by many as more hawkish—favoring higher rates for longer—which has unsettled markets.
Interest rate policy can influence crypto asset prices: easing liquidity tends to boost asset prices, while tighter policy and reduced access to financing can weigh on them.
“The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair has shaken markets to the core,” crypto market analyst Nic Puckrin told Cointelegraph. He linked a late-January and early-February drop in precious metals to perceptions that Warsh supports keeping policy tighter and shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet. Puckrin quoted Warsh’s view that the balance sheet is “trillions larger than it needs to be,” cautioning that balance-sheet reduction would create a lower-liquidity environment for markets.
Thomas Perfumo, a global economist at crypto exchange Kraken, said Warsh’s nomination sends a “mixed” macro signal to investors. Rather than signaling an expansion of liquidity and credit as some in crypto had hoped, the pick may suggest stabilization rather than growth in U.S. liquidity.
Interest rate target probabilities for the March 2026 FOMC meeting. Source: CME Group
Related coverage explores how Fed moves could shape bitcoin’s next bull market.
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