Only 0.015% of Polymarket traders consistently earn $5,000 or more per month, new analysis shows, suggesting quitting a full-time job to trade prediction markets is unrealistic for most people.
Crypto analyst Andrey Sergeenkov reported that while nearly 1% of Polymarket users made over $5,000 in a single month, only 0.1% repeated that performance the next month, and just 0.015% sustained it for four consecutive months. (See Sergeenkov’s full write-up: https://sergeenkov.com/polymarket-profitability/.)
Charts accompanying the research track the share of traders averaging more than $1,000, $5,000 and $10,000 in monthly profits since April 2024. For context, the average U.S. monthly salary is about $5,220, according to Consumer Shield.
Prediction markets have grown quickly in crypto, letting users bet on politics, sports, finance and cultural events. Most use binary “yes”/“no” shares priced between $0 and $1 that reflect perceived probabilities. Traders profit by buying undervalued positions and selling at higher prices, or by holding contracts that settle at $1 if the outcome occurs.
Sergeenkov framed his findings alongside high-profile examples and claims. A report on Logan Sudeith, a former financial risk analyst who quit his job and reportedly made $100,000 on prediction markets in December, highlighted individual success stories. An X post from former Messari analyst “Tulip King” had also claimed in November that “Polymarket is the easiest place in crypto to make six figures right now.”
Despite such anecdotes, Sergeenkov found that only about 840 wallets (roughly 0.033% of Polymarket traders) had profited over $100,000. Some of those addresses likely belong to professional traders or firms, including hedge funds, rather than retail users. “Less experienced users tend to trade less successfully,” Sergeenkov noted.
Most traders who do post large profits don’t remain active long. Of 6,600 wallet addresses with average monthly profits above $5,000, just 172 remained active for more than a year — about 2.6%. “Most traders show up, trade for a short period, and leave,” Sergeenkov said.
The analysis has limitations: it counts only realized profits and losses, though the researcher estimated that 96% of trading volume comes from already resolved markets. The data covers April 2024 through April 1, 2026.
Related: Three Polymarket traders made timely bets on US-Iran ceasefire (https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-polymarket-traders-made-a-timely-bet-on-a-us-iran-ceasefire)
Cointelegraph is committed to independent, transparent journalism. This article follows Cointelegraph’s Editorial Policy; readers are encouraged to verify information independently. Read the policy: https://cointelegraph.com/editorial-policy